All snow lovers cannot help thinking about the upcoming winter season; especially after a difficult winter like 2011/2012, the desire for snow is strong, and we are all eagerly awaiting the return of the white stuff to our mountains.
Making long-range forecasts is not easy and perhaps even impossible, so it is not our intention to endorse the weather projections we will discuss here; with this article we simply want to summarize the online rumors about the 2012/2013 winter.
For about a month we have been browsing US weather forums where users exchange more or less professional opinions on how the weather might evolve this winter; as is only natural, attention is focused mainly on the American winter, yet when Europe (and particularly the Alpine regions) is discussed, many agree that the 2012/2013 winter will be normal—neither a dry winter nor a super-snowy one, with temperatures setting no records either high or low. It is worth remembering that the weather phenomenon shaping the upcoming winter season will be El Niño, whereas last year La Niña prevailed, leading US ski resorts into a difficult start to the season before finally giving way to heavy snowfalls in the final winter months.
El Niño affects Pacific Ocean temperatures and has its greatest impact in the Americas, where significant anomalies across different regions have occurred in past years (mild winters in some areas, very snowy and cold in others). Precisely because this phenomenon involves the Pacific, its effects on the Old Continent should be almost negligible…
While most American “weather geeks/experts” show little interest in the European winter, there are others who do cover it, publishing articles complete with projections and maps that leave very little to the imagination: we are talking about the authoritative website Accuweather.com, which in recent days released online its forecast for the 2012–2013 winter, subsequently republished by many European weather portals (including authoritative ones).
Let’s briefly summarize what the forecast reports from Accuweather:
The first map shows forecast temperatures; Siberian cold will spread from mid- to late winter. The countries expected to experience below-average temperatures will mainly be the United Kingdom, Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, Poland, Germany, Switzerland, France, Spain, and Portugal. In the second half of winter (around mid-January), cold air currents could sweep down from the north, bringing a temperature drop to Italy as well, though less pronounced than last year’s freezing February.
2012-2013 snow forecast
As for precipitation, the situation will be completely different from last year, when rain and snow abandoned the Alps, leaving many ski resorts looking like autumn. For late 2012–2013, precipitation should not be lacking, and in the mountains (especially the Alps) winter will be characterized by steady snowfalls, though not record-breaking ones.
If Accuweather’s forecast were to be confirmed, this would be a normal winter for Italy: snow in the mountains and average rain and temperatures in the plains. Nothing extraordinary, but certainly a major improvement compared to last season.
Note: However, it must be kept in mind that long-range forecasts are worth very little and all scenarios remain possible. The US website’s forecast, however authoritative, should be taken with a grain of salt—nothing more than food for thought for those who, like us, love the snow and cannot do without it!
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